HomeMy WebLinkAbout5 - Feedback on Scenarios for Meeting Water Use Reduction Goals related to the Drought Plan Update
CITY OF BOULDER
WATER RESOURCES ADVISORY BOARD
AGENDA ITEM
MEETING DATE: July 20, 2009
AGENDA TITLE: Feedback on Scenarios for Meeting Water Use Reduction Goals
related to the Drought Response Plan Update
PRESENTERS: Carol Ellinghouse, Water Resources Coordinator
Joanna Crean, Public Works Administrator
Bret Linenfelser, Water Quality Coordinator
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
At the June 15, 2009 WRAB meeting, Dr. Charles Howe and Dr. Douglas Kenney, University of
Colorado professors, presented the lessons learned on residential water demand management
from a "Drought in Aurora, Colorado" case study. Drs. Howe and Kenney discussed factors
affecting residential water demand during drought focusing on price, water restrictions, and
rebate programs. The principle of price elasticity and the revenue implications of different
controls were also discussed.
These principles have been incorporated into several scenarios to meet the water use reduction
goals for each drought stage for the city of Boulder (see Attachment A for details on each
scenario). At the July 20, 2009 WRAB meeting, staff will present these scenarios. Feedback
from WRAB will be incorporated into a revised version of the Drought Response Plan (Volume
1). It is anticipated that a final version of the Drought Response Plan will be provided to WRAB
in the fall of 2009.
GUIDELINES FOR REDUCING WATER USE DURING DROUGHT STAGES:
Each drought is unique and there are a variety of ways that water use reduction goals might be
met. Some of the ways to decrease water use include reducing water budgets, adding drought
surcharges, and implementing mandatory watering restrictions. These response options would be
considered at each of the four stages of the drought. Listed in Table I are the drought stages and
corresponding water use reduction goals. The annual goals are derived from water system
modeling based on reductions needed to meet City Council adopted reliability criteria. The
indoor and outdoor goals assume that indoor use is 60 percent of Boulder's total use and outdoor
use is 40 percent in non-drought years based on the average ratio from 2005 to 2008. The indoor
and outdoor percentages will be reviewed for applicability in any particular drought situation and
modified as needed.
AGENDA ITEM # 5 PAGE_1
Table I: Drought Stage Water Reduction Goals
DROUGHT STAGE REDUCTION GOALS
STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III STAGE IV
Annual water use 8% 14% 22% 40%
reduction oal
Indoor water use 5% 5% 7% 8%
reduction goal
Outdoor water use 16% 28% 45% 88%
reduction goal
Water Use Reduction Approaches
Water use can be reduced using both price mechanisms and non-price mechanisms.
Non-price mechanisms include education programs, improvements in water use technology,
and water use restrictions. Education programs can be part of an on-going water conservation
program promoting wise water use in typical years or can be tailored to specific information on
drought response in lean water years. Technology changes such as water fixture retrofits can be
encouraged by rebate programs in both drought and non-drought years. Water use restrictions are
usually confined to drought years and can be voluntary or mandatory. Mandatory water use
restrictions can be used when an immediate response is required, including methods such as
limits on days or times for irrigation use or prohibition of sidewalk washing.
Pricing mechanisms can be used by applying drought surcharges to standard block rates. In
addition, Boulder's water budget rate structure allows pricing to be used for water use reduction
even without an increase in the block rates because a decrease in water budget size reduces the
size of Blocks 1 and 2 (blocks 1 and 2 is 100% of a customer's water budget). This effectively
increases the cost of water if a customer maintains the previous level of use by moving a portion
of water use from Blocks 1 and 2 into higher rate blocks as shown in Figure 1. In response, the
water customer would be expected to reduce that portion of previous use that moved in to a
higher rate block as it is no longer included in the water budget in Blocks 1 and 2. However,
because of the inelasticity) associated with water use, the customer would likely not completely
reduce their water use that has moved into the higher rate block. Therefore, the water budget
must be decreased by more than the desired overall water use reduction goal. For example, if a
customer has previously used only their budget amount and if the water budget is reduced by 10
percent, Blocks 1 and 2 are reduced by 10 percent in size and 10 percent of the previous use will
move into Block 3. The cost of Block 3 is 100 percent greater than Block 2, so if elasticity is
-0.6, the customer might be expected to decrease use of the water at the margin in Block 3 by 60
percent. The customer's use would be 104 percent of their current budgeted amount, but would
be 94 percent of their previous budget, satisfying a use reduction goal of 6 percent. Revenue for
the city from this customer would go up in this instance even though water use is reduced.
' Water is considered to be an "inelastic" commodity because a specific percent change in price results in a smaller
percent change in demand. For example, if elasticity is -0.6, a 10 percent price increase in water results in a 6
percent reduction in water demand.
AGENDA ITEM # 5 PAGE_2
Figure I
Annual Water Bill and Water Budget for SFR customer
with use of Water Budget Reduction Only
(w! 9000 sf Irrigable Area & In-Budget Use)
$1,800 250
$1,600 $1,527
212
200 ~In-budget
$1,400
water use level
<_...173
$1,200
160 M Non-drought
150 = use level
$1,000 128 0
M
Cm
$800 $ o ° 'Annual water
$618 $661 100 o budget amount
$600 $495 $495
76
$400 $373 $298 50
$0 $404 0
$200 $177
No Drought Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Drought Stage
If surcharges on rates for higher water use blocks are used in conjunction with water budget
reductions, water revenues will increase from customers who continue to use water at pre-
drought levels as shown in Figure 2. However, if the surcharges have the intended effect of
encouraging customers to stay within the reduced water budgets, most customers will not pay the
surcharge and overall revenues to the water utility will decrease.
Potential Revenue Impact
Mandatory restrictions have a negative effect on overall water revenues, first by reducing the
total amount of water used and sold and, secondly, by forcing high water users to remain in a
lower rate block. However, mandatory restrictions may be necessary in more severe droughts to
achieve the quick response needed to protect reservoir levels and to assure that the burden of
water use reductions are shared by all socio-economic classes.
When water budget reductions, surcharges and restrictions are all used together, it is more likely
customers will remain within their water budgets and that the burden of water shortages will be
more fairly shared across all segments of the community. Overall water revenues to the city
would be reduced (please see Attachment B page 9), but this could be offset in various ways.
The utility could use it's operating and/or capital reserves, it could use any available fund
balance beyond it's reserves, delay capital projects or operating programs, assess an additional
fixed charge or surcharge that is added to water bills during the drought period or establish a
revenue stabilization fund to be used during a drought.
AGENDA ITEM # 5 PAGE_3
Figure 2
Annual Water Bill and Water Budget for SFR customer
with use of Water Budget Reduction and Drought Surcharges
(w! 9000 sf Irrigable Area & In-Budget Use)
$2,000 250
$1,800 $1,725
A 12
$1,600 200 ~In-budget
water use
$1,400 173 level
1 Non-drought
$1,200 150 c use level
- 141 p
$1,000 p° Annual water
114 °o budget
$800 $720 100 ° amount
$618 $657
$600 $495 $495
$400 $404 $376 $330
$267 50
$200 11 $0 - - 0
No Drought Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Drought Stage
Figure 3
Annual Water Bill and Water Budget for SFR Customer
with use of Water Budget Reduction and Restrictions
(w! 9000 sf Irrigable Area & In-Budget Use)
$1,800 250
$1,600
12
In-budget
$1,400 200 water use
173 level
$1,200 IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINon-drought
160 150 c use level
$1,000 150 0
$889
m
Annual water
$800 118 c
budget
$618 $661 $692 100 amount
$600 $495 $495
$400 $404 $373 $350
$276 50
$200
$0 - - 0
No Drought Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Drought Stage
AGENDA ITEM # 5 PAGE_4
Elasticities can be determined for differing water budget reduction amounts, rate blocks,
surcharges and water use restrictions. Water use becomes increasingly inelastic (smaller
elasticity values) as water budgets are decreased. In general, water users with higher
consumption and those with lower income maybe more sensitive to pricing, so have higher
elasticities for their use. When both pricing and non-pricing methods are used at the same time,
the elasticities that would apply to each method when used separately are not additive. When
restrictions are used, customers are less responsive to price when the restricted water use level is
reached before achieving the level where the price signal affects behavior. Pricing methods may
provide a good on-going means to restrain high water users, while water use restrictions may be
the best means to deal with severe drought periods.
Several options were developed for reaching Boulder's water use reduction goals established for
each drought stage through water system modeling (see Attachment A for details). Although all
options produce the same overall reduction in city-wide water use, the scenarios vary based on
how much:
• water budgets are reduced,
• drought surcharges are added, and
• mandatory watering restrictions are implemented.
The options illustrate the effects of various drought management tools. For instance, how much
does the water budget, and the corresponding size of Blocks 1 and 2, for a single-family
residential user need to be reduced for each drought stage if surcharges and restrictions are not
used? The scenarios allow comparison of a "water budget reduction only" option to options
using one or more additional tools to meet the water use reduction goals (see Attachment B for
details). All scenarios will be included in Volume 2 of the Drought Plan to provide a range of
information to future drought responders since each drought will have different characteristics.
PRELIMINARY STAFF RECOMMENDATION:
Based on the strengths and weakness of the various scenarios/options as discussed in
Attachment A, staff is preliminarily recommending that, in a drought, consideration first be
given to using water budget size reductions in Drought Stage I and then using a combination of
water budget size reductions, surcharges and water use restrictions in Drought Stages II, III, and
IV (scenario 4 in Attachment A). Using water budget size reductions, surcharges and water use
restrictions combines the strengths of both pricing methods and restrictions for severe droughts.
This also effectively targets the most wasteful water users and it applies to all customers
regardless of income level. By using the combination of methods, less reduction in water budgets
are required than in scenarios 1, 2, or 3. It also requires both lower surcharges and less severe
restrictions than if either method is used alone. The preliminary staff recommendation is
summarized in Table II. As reflected in the table, based on WRAB feedback, the water budgets
for commercial industrial and institutional (CII) customers are reduced by a percentage.
AGENDA ITEM # 5 PAGE_5
Table II,• Drought Response Plan Summary
Drought Water Use Recommended Response Methods Main Focus
Stage Reduction Goal
Stage I Annual: 8% Water Budget Only Basic conservation
Moderate Indoor: 5% . Implement voluntary water use restrictions. measures.
Outdoor: 16% . Reduce water budgets by: Emphasize wise water
o Residential & CII Indoor/Outdoor: 9% use practices.
indoor/22% outdoor
o Irrigation-only: 22% outdoor
o CII HMU & AMU: 13%
o CII Efficienc : 8%
Stage II Annual: 14% Water Budget, Surcharges, & Restrictions Keep the following
Serious Indoor: 5% • Implement mandatory "common sense" vegetation alive: Trees,
Outdoor: 28% water use restrictions (i.e., no sidewalk shrubs, vegetable and
washing). flower gardens and
• Reduce water budgets by: lawns.
o Residential & CII Indoor/Outdoor: Emphasize wise water
10% indoor/31 % outdoor use practices.
o Irrigation-only: 31 % outdoor
o CII HMU & AMU: 23%
o CII Efficiency: 14%
• Add drought surcharge to block 5 only.
Stage III Annual: 22% Water Budget, Surcharges, & Restrictions Keep the following
Severe Indoor: 7% . Implement mandatory "more restrictive" vegetation alive: major
Outdoor: 45% water use restrictions (i.e., certain trees, major shrubs, and
days/times for irrigation). limited vegetable
• Reduce water budgets by: gardens.
o Residential & CII Indoor/Outdoor: Accelerate fixture
I I% indoor/39% outdoor replacement and
o Irrigation-only: 39% outdoor permanent water use
o CII HMU & AMU: 34% efficiency measures.
o CII Efficiency: 22%
• Add drought surcharge to block 4 and 5.
Stage IV Annual: 40% Water Budget, Surcharges, & Restrictions Sustain some mature
Extreme Indoor: 8% • Implement mandatory "very restrictive" trees, but recognize
Outdoor: 88% water use restrictions (i.e., no lawn there may be a major
watering). die-off of lawns, trees,
• Reduce water budget by: and shrubs.
o Residential & CII Indoor/Outdoor: Further accelerate
14% indoor/62% outdoor fixture replacement and
o Irrigation-only: 62% outdoor permanent water use
o CII HMU & AMU: 50% efficiency measures.
o CII Efficiency: 40%
• Add drought surcharge to blocks 3, 4, and
5.
AGENDA ITEM # 5 PAGE_6
NEXT STEPS:
Feedback from WRAB on the scenarios to meet the water use reduction goals will be
incorporated into a revised version of the Drought Response Plan (Volume 1). It is anticipated
that a final version of the Drought Response Plan will be provided to WRAB in the fall of 2009.
Volume 2 of the Drought Plan (technical information) is anticipated to be updated in 2010
following the completion of new water system model runs and studies as recommended in the
Source Water Master Plan. Staff will present a draft of Volume 2 to WRAB when complete.
ATTACHMENT:
A - Scenarios for Meeting the Water Use Reduction Goals for Each Drought Stage
B - Comparison of Scenarios including Potential Customer Impact
AGENDA ITEM # 5 PAGE_7
ATTACHMENT A: SCENARIOS FOR MEETING WATER USE REDUCTION
GOALS DURING DROUGHT
(Percentage reductions are based on billing in hundreds of gallons rather than thousands of gallons.
Currently customers are billed in thousands of gallons. Percentages would increase with billing in
thousands of gallons)
Scenario 1
Change in Water Budget Size Only
(no restrictions or surcharges)
Strengths: simple to implement, easy to understand and explain; no need for enforcement
of restrictions
Weaknesses: requires large reductions in water budget size to achieve overall use reduction
goals, does not focus on eliminating the most wasteful water use, financial impact to
previously conserving water users, customers willing to pay more can ignore need to
conserve; much of water savings may come from lower income customers most affected by
pricing changes; very small water budgets in late summer due to delay in water reduction
response when using price signal only; requires extensive public relations effort prior to
customer receipt of first water bills; many customers will have difficulty staying within budget
(especially in stages III and IV); delayed 30-day response in reducing water due to billing
DROUGHT STAGE REDUCTIONS
STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III STAGE IV
City-wide annual water use 8% 14% 22% 40%
reduction goal
Indoor water use 5% 5% 7% 8%
reduction goal
Indoor water
Residential budget 9% 10% 16% 20%
& CII reduction
Indoor/ Outdoor water
Outdoor use reduction 16% 28% 45% 88%
goal
Outdoor water
budget 22% 32% 54% 93%
reduction
CII HMU & AMU 13% 25% 42% F 65%
(For° all scenarios, the water budget reduction for 1) Irrigation-Only accounts is equal to the
residential outdoor water budget reduction and 2) CII Efficiency accounts is equal to the city-wide
annual water use reduction goal.)
1
Residential
Indoor Use Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Water Budget Year Drought Drought Drought Drqqght
SFR gallons 7000 6400 6300 5900 5600
SFR % of 100% 91% 90% 84% 80%
non-drought year
MFR gallons 4000 3700 3600 3400 3200
MFR % of 100% 92% 90% 85% 80%
non-drought year
ET rates to be used for outdoor water budget calculation
% of non-drought year ET rate not included in budget
22% 32% 54% 93%
Percent of Non-Drought Year ET Rate
Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Year Drought Drought Drought Drought
Jan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Feb 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mar 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Air - - 7% - - 7% 7% 7% 6%°-
MaY------- -------14%0------- - - - - - 13% - - - - - - - - - - - - 13% - - - - - - - - - - - -12%0----- 0%------
Jun 20% 19% 17% 15% 0%
-
Jul 20% 16% 14% 7% 0%
-
--------Aug------- -------18%0------- ------12%--- - - - - - - - - 10% - - - - - - - - - - - --3%------ 0%------
- -----SeP------- - - 12% - - - 8% 6% 1 % 0%...._..
Oct 7% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Nov 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dec 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total 100% 78% 68% 46% 7%
Note: Drought stages are declared in early May, so there is little opportunity to adjust
outdoor budgets prior to that time. Therefore, the majority of water budget savings will need
to occur after May. Also, billing cycles will cause a delay in water use reductions of about a
month and a half if only pricing signals are used to cause the reduction. Therefore, water
budgets will need to be reduced to a greater extent in late summer months if only pricing
signals are used.
2
Scenario 2
Change in Water Budget Size with Surcharges in Stages II through IV
(no restrictions)
Strengths: moderately easy to understand and explain; no need for enforcement of
restrictions; maintains revenue levels for water utility; uses pricing to target the most wasteful
water use; less reduction in water budget required than Scenario 1
Weaknesses: customers willing to pay more can ignore need to conserve; may
disproportionately affect lower income customers; requires extensive public relations effort
prior to customer receipt of first water bills including surcharge; financial impact to customers
unaware of surcharge, small water budgets in late summer due to delay in water reduction
response when using price signal only; delayed 30-day response to reduce water due to
billing cycle
DROUGHT STAGE REDUCTIONS
STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III STAGE IV
City-wide annual water use 8% 14% 22% 40%
reduction goal
Indoor water use 5% 5% 7% 8%
reduction goal
Indoor water
Residential budget 9% 10% 14% 19%
& CII reduction
Indoor/ Outdoor water
Outdoor use reduction 16% 28% 45% 88%
goal
Outdoor water
budget 22% 31% 44% 63%
reduction
CII HMU & AMU 13% 22% 35% 43%
Surcharges (amount x base)
Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Rate Drought Drought Drought Drought
Block 1 3/4 base
Block 2 base
Block 3 2 x base 5 x base
Block 4 3 x base 4 x base 6 x base
Block 5 5 x base 7 x base 8 x base 9 x base
3
Residential
Indoor Use Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Water Budget Year Drought Drought Drought Drqqght
SFR gallons 7000 6400 6300 6000 5700
SFR % of 100% 91% 90% 86% 81%
non-drought year
MFR gallons 4000 3700 3600 3400 3200
MFR % of 100% 92% 90% 85% 80%
non-drought year
ET rates to be used for outdoor water budget calculation
% of non-drought year ET rate not included in budget
22% 31% 44% 63%
Percent of Non-Drought Year ET Rate
Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Year Drought Drought Drought Drought
Jan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Feb 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mar 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
-Apr------ 7% . 7% 7% 7% 6%
May-------- 14%------- 13% - - - - - - - - - - - - 13% - - - - - - - - - - - _12%-------------- 10%
Jun 20% 19% 18% 16% 10%
20% 16% 14% 10% 8%
-
-------Aug------- 18.............. 12% 10% 7°_/°._.._......... 2%...._..
-------Sep------- -------12%------ 8%------- 6-%------ 3%----- 0%
-
Oct 7% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Nov 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dec 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total 100% 78% 69% 56% 37%
Note: Drought stages are declared in early May, so there is little opportunity to adjust
outdoor budgets prior to that time. Therefore, the majority of water budget savings will need
to occur after May. Also, billing cycles will cause a delay in water use reductions of about a
month and a half if only pricing signals are used to cause the reduction. Therefore, water
budgets will need to be reduced to a greater extent in late summer months if only pricing
signals are used.
4
Scenario 3
Change in Water Budget Size with Restrictions in Stages II through IV
(no surcharges)
Strengths: moderately easy to understand and explain; quickest method to reduce water
use during severe droughts; specifically targets most wasteful water use; applies to all
customers regardless of income level; less reduction in water budget required than other
scenarios; can be more effective at targeting high water users during severe droughts than
surcharges alone
Weaknesses: requires enforcement effort; requires extensive public relations effort prior to
implementation of restrictions; financial impact to customers unaware of restrictions, reduces
customer choice in how to use allocated water budget; requires significant restrictions on use
during severe droughts; largest loss of revenue to water utility of all Scenarios
DROUGHT STAGE REDUCTIONS
STAGE I STAGE I I* STAGE III* STAGE IV*
City-wide annual water use 8% 14% 22% 40%
reduction goal
Indoor water use 5% 5% 7% 8%
reduction goal
Indoor water
Residential budget 9% 10% 14% 19%
& CII reduction
Indoor/ Outdoor water
Outdoor use reduction 16% 28% 45% 88%
goal
Outdoor water
budget 22% 32% 37% 60%
reduction
CII HMU & AMU 13% 26% 37% 48%
*The water budget reduction guidelines for Drought Stages 11, III and IV assume that water
use restrictions are in effect (e.g.-no sidewalk washing, limitations on car washing, lawn
watering time or date restrictions).
Reduction to be Achieved thru Restrictions and Rebates
Stage II Drought Stage III Drought Stage IV Drought
Block 1 0% 2% 7%
Block 2 0% 5% 15%
Block 3 3% 11% 38%
Block 4 8% 44% 47%
Block 5 15% 60% 70%
s
Residential
Indoor Use Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage I I I Stage IV
Water Budget Year Drought Drought Drought Drought
SFR gallons 7000 6400 6300 6000 5700
SFR % of 100% 91% 90% 86% 81%
non-drought year
MFR gallons 4000 3700 3600 3400 3200
MFR % of 100% 92% 90% 85% 80%
non-drought year
ET rates to be used for outdoor water budget calculation
% of non-drought year ET rate not included in budget
22% 32% 37% 60%
Percent of Non-Drought Year ET Rate
Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Year Drought Drought Drought Drought
Jan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Feb 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mar 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
- Apr ° 77% 7%° 6%
_--_--May-------- -------14............. 1312% 1210%
Jun 20% 19% 17% 16% 11%
Jul 20% 16% 14% 12% 7%
-
Aug 18% - - 12% 10% 9%° 4%
-SeP- - - 12% - 8% 6% 5% 1%
Oct 7% 2% 1% 0% 0%
Nov 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dec 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total 100% 78% 68% 63% 40%
Note: Drought stages are declared in early May, so there is little opportunity to adjust
outdoor budgets prior to that time. Therefore, the majority of water budget savings will need
to occur after May.
Scenario 4 *Preliminary Staff Recommendation*
Change in Water Budget Size with Restrictions and Surcharges
Strengths: combines strengths of both pricing methods and restrictions for severe droughts;
quick reduction in water use during severe droughts; effectively targets most wasteful water
use; applies to all customers regardless of income level; less reduction in water budget
required than Scenarios 1, 2 or 3; requires both lower surcharges and less severe restrictions
than either method used alone
Weaknesses: requires enforcement effort; requires extensive public relations effort; financial
impact to customers unaware of restrictions or surcharges, reduced customer choice in how
to use allocated water budget
DROUGHT STAGE REDUCTIONS
STAGE I STAGE II* STAGE III* STAGE IV*
City-wide annual water use 8% 14% 22% 40%
reduction goal
Indoor water use 5% 5% 7% 8%
reduction goal
Indoor water
Residential budget 9% 10% 11% 14%
& CII reduction
Indoor/ Outdoor water
Outdoor use reduction 16% 28% 45% 88%
goal
Outdoor water
budget 22% 31% 39% 62%
reduction
CII HMU & AMU 13% 23% 34% F50%
*The water budget reduction guidelines for Drought Stages 11, III and IV assume that water
use restrictions are in effect (e.g.-no sidewalk washing, limitations on car washing, lawn
watering time or date restrictions).
Surcharges (amount x base)
Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Rate Drought Drought Drought Drought
Block 1 3/4 base
Block 2 base
Block 3 2 x base 3 x base
Block 4 3 x base 4 x base 4 x base
Block 5 5 x base 7 x base 8 x base 8 x base
7
Reduction to be Achieved thru Restrictions and Rebates
Stage II Drought Stage III Drought Stage IV Drought
Block 1 0% 2% 5%
Block 2 0% 3% 10%
Block 3 2% 8% 22%
Block 4 5% 32% 37%
Block 5 12% 47% 52%
Residential
Indoor Use Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage I I I Stage IV
Water Budget Year Drought Drought Drought Drought
SFR gallons 7000 6400 6300 6200 6000
SFR % of 100% 91% 90% 89% 86%
non-drought year
MFR gallons 4000 3600 3600 3500 3400
MFR % of 100% 90% 90% 88% 85%
non-drought year
ET rates to be used for outdoor water budget calculation
% of non-drought year ET rate not included in budget
22% 31% 39% 62%
Percent of Non-Drought Year ET Rate
Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Year Drought Drought Drought Drought
Jan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Feb 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mar 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
_ Apr 7% _ 7% 7% 7% 6%
--------May-------- -------14% 1313% 118%
Jun 20% 19% 18% 17% 10%
Jul 20% 16% 14% 12% 7%
-------Aug 18% 12% 10% 9%° 5%
--------Sep------. - - 12% 8----------------------------- 6% 4% 1%._.._..
Oct 7% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Nov 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total 100% 78% 69% 61% 38%
8
Scenario 5
Change in Water Budget Size and Block Size with Restrictions and Surcharges
Strengths: more effectively targets most wasteful water use; combines strengths of both
pricing methods and restrictions for severe droughts; quick reduction in water use during
severe droughts; applies to all customers regardless of income level; less severe restrictions
required than Scenarios 3 or 4; improved maintenance of revenue levels for water utility
Weaknesses: most difficult to implement and explain; requires most adjustments to billing
system; requires enforcement effort; requires extensive public relations effort; financial impact
to customers unaware of restrictions or surcharges, reduced customer choice in how to use
allocated water budget
DROUGHT STAGE REDUCTIONS
STAGE I STAGE II* STAGE III* STAGE IV*
City-wide annual water use 8% 14% 22% 40%
reduction goal
Indoor water use 5% 5% 7% 8%
reduction goal
Indoor water
Residential budget 9% 9% 9% 11%
& CII reduction
Indoor/ Outdoor water
Outdoor use reduction 16% 28% 45% 88%
goal
Outdoor water
budget 22% 30% 37% 66%
reduction
CII HMU & AMU 13% 21% 27% 48%
*The water budget reduction guidelines for Drought Stages 11, III and IV assume that water
use restrictions are in effect (e.g.-no sidewalk washing or car washing, lawn watering time
or date restrictions).
upper end of block size- % of drought stage budget
Block Sizes Non-Drought
Block Size Stage I Stage II Stage II I Stage IV
Drought Drought Drought Drought
Block 1 0 - 60% 60% 60% 55% 55%
Block 2 61-100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Block 3 101 -150% 150% 150% 140% 135%
Block 4 151 - 200% 200% 190% 185% 175%
Block 5 over 200% over 200% over 190% over 185% over 175%
9
Residential
Indoor Use Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage I I I Stage IV
Water Budget Year Drought Drought Drought Drought
SFR gallons 7000 6400 6400 6400 6200
SFR % of 100% 91% 91% 91% 89%
non-drought year
MFR gallons 4000 3700 3600 3600 3500
MFR % of 100% 92% 90% 90% 88%
non-drought year
Surcharges amount x base
Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Rate Drought Drought Drought Drought
Block 1 3/4 base
Block 2 base
Block 3 2 x base 3 x base
Block 4 3 x base 4 x base 4 x base
Block 5 5 x base 8 x base 10 x base 7 x base
Reduction to be Achieved thru Restrictions and Rebates
Stage II Drought Stage III Drought Stage IV Drought
Block 1 0% 2% 3%
Block 2 0% 3% 9%
Block 3 2% 8% 15%
Block 4 5% 28% 34%
Block 5 12% 36% 45%
10
ET rates to be used for outdoor water budget calculation
% of non-drought year ET rate not included in budget
22% 30% 37% 66%
Percent of Non-Drought Year ET Rate
Non-Drought Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
Year Drought Drought Drought Drought
Jan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Feb 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mar 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
----'4pr - - ° 77% 7%° 6%
--------Mad/------- -------14--------------------------------------------------- 1313% 129%
Jun 20% 19% 18% 17% 10%
Jul 20% 16% 14% 13% 6%
18% 12% 10% 9% 2%
-
-------Sep------- - - 12%------- 87% 4%-----.........
Oct 7% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Nov 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dee 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total 100% 78% 70% 63% 34%
11
ATTACHMENT B: Comparison of Scenarios
INDOOR DROUGHT STAGE WATER BUDGET REDUCTIONS
RESIDENTIAL STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III* STAGE IV-
Scenario 1
(water budget 9% 10% 16% 20%
reduction only)
Scenario 2 9% 10% 14% 19%
(with surcharges)
Scenario 3 9% 10% 14% 19%
(with restrictions)
Scenario 4
(w/ surcharges & 9% 10% 11% 14%
restrictions)
Scenario 5
(w/ surcharges, 9% 9% 9% 11%
restrictions & block
size reduction)
OUTDOOR DROUGHT STAGE WATER BUDGET REDUCTIONS
RESIDENTIAL STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III* STAGE IV-
Scenario 1
(water budget 22% 32% 54% 93%
reduction only)
Scenario 2 22% 31% 44% 63%
(with surcharges)
Scenario 3 22% 32% 37% 60%
(with restrictions)
Scenario 4
(w/ surcharges & 22% 31% 39% 62%
restrictions
Scenario 5
(w/ surcharges, 22% 30% 37% 66%
restrictions & block
size reduction
Note: All scenarios are the same for Drought Stage 1 because restrictions, surcharges
or block size changes are not used until more severe drought stages.
DROUGHT STAGE WATER BUDGET REDUCTIONS
CII HMU & AMU
STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III* STAGE IV*
Scenario 1
(water budget 13% 25% 42% 65%
reduction only)
Scenario 2 13% 22% 35% 43%
(with surcharges)
Scenario 3 13% 26% 37% 48%
(with restrictions)
Scenario 4
(w/ surcharges & 13% 23% 34% 50%
restrictions
Scenario 5
(w/ surcharges, 13% 21% 27% 48%
restrictions & block
size reduction
2
City-wide SFR & MFR % of annual non-drought use
Sta e 1 Drou ht 92% of non-drought use
Non- Drought %
Rate Block of annual use All Scenarios
Block 1 73.7% 60.6%
Block 2 16.8% 21.1%
Block 3 6.4% 6.0%
Block 4 1.6% 2.6%
Block 5 1.4% 1.7%
Stage 2 Drought 86% of non-drought use
Rate Non- Drought
Block of annual use Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Block 1 73.7% 50.4% 51.9% 50.5% 51.5% 52.9%
Block 2 16.8% 24.7% 24.2% 24.6% 24.3% 23.8%
Block 3 6.4% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.4%
Block 4 1.6% 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3%
Block 5 1.4% 2.5% 1.0% 2.3% 12% 0.6%
Stage 3 Drought 78% of non-drought use
Rate Non- Drought %
Block of annual use Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Block 1 73.7% 39.0% 42.9% 46.1% 45.7% 43.8%
Block 2 16.8% 21.4% 23.6% 24.9% 24.8% 29.1%
Block 3 6.4% 10.0% 8.7% 5.7% 6.7% 4.4%
Block 4 1.6% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4%
Block 5 1.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%
Stag e 4 Drought 60% of non-drought use
Rate Non- Drought %
Block of annual use Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Block 1 73.7% 23.5% 34.7% 36.8% 36.9% 33.7%
Block 2 16.8% 12.3% 19.3% 19.0% 19.2% 21.2%
Block 3 6.4% 8.9% 4.9% 3.9% 3.6% 4.5%
Block 4 1.6% 5.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
Block 5 1.4% 9.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
3
City-wide CII % of annual non-drought use
Sta e 1 Drou ht 92% of non-drought use
Non- Drought %
Rate Block of annual use All Scenarios
Block 1 58.3% 50.7%
Block 2 24.9% 23.6%
Block 3 10.2% 9.5%
Block 4 2.8% 3.8%
Block 5 3.8% 4.4%
Stage 2 Drought 86% of non-drought use
Rate Non- Drought
Block of annual use Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Block 1 73.7% 43.8% 45.8% 43.4% 44.7% 45.9%
Block 2 16.8% 22.6% 22.9% 22.5% 22.7% 22.9%
Block 3 6.4% 9.3% 9.4% 10.3% 10.3% 10.2%
Block 4 1.6% 5.2% 4.8% 5.1% 5.0% 4.4%
Block 5 1.4% 5.1% 3.1% 4.7% 3.2% 2.5%
Stage 3 Drought 78% of non-drought use
Rate Non- Drought %
Block of annual use Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Block 1 73.7% 34.0% 38.1% 36.3% 38.0% 38.1%
Block 2 16.8% 21.5% 22.5% 212% 21.8% 25.5%
Block 3 6.4% 10.0% 11.0% 11.3% 12.4% 10.6%
Block 4 1.6% 4.8% 3.7% 4.4% 3.6% 3.6%
Block 5 1.4% 7.7% 2.8% 4.9% 2.2% 0.2%
Stag e 4 Drought 60% of non-drought use
Rate Non- Drought %
Block of annual use Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
Block 1 73.7% 20.32% 33.5% 28.4% 28.1% 26.9%
Block 2 16.8% 13.0% 21.5% 16.5% 17.7% 20.7%
Block 3 6.4% 9.7% 0.3% 8.3% 7.3% 5.4%
Block4 1.6% 5.1% 0.9% 2.8% 3.2% 2.7%
Block 5 1.4% 11.9% 3.8% 4.0% 3.7% 4.3%
4
Percent of City-wide SFR and MFR Water Use in Excess of Water Budget
(i.e.-- in Blocks 3, 4. 5)
(Non-Drought Excess Use = 9.5%)
45% -
40% 40.3%
35%
i
30% 9ft ■ Scenario 5
25% 1.20% 22.5% ■ Scenario 4
20% 12. ° ° ❑ Scenario 3
0
15% ~ 11.2% 11.5 /014.7% ❑ Scenario 2
10% . 11.20/12.6°/` ■ Scenario 1
5% 11.2% 1.9% 9.0% 9.9%
0% ~ 10.8%
- 6.5% 6.4% S G'ehar
8.60%
sc Ceha~i0
'A 190,
5 0 S. r `Soe a~i°
,03
e~O 4.°
C6 eJ
s
Percent of City-wide CII Water Use in Excess of Water Budget
(i.e.-- in Blocks 3, 4. 5)
(Non-Drought Excess Use = 16.8%)
45%
j 44.5% 40%
19.2°/V~ 35% Scenario 5
1 201, 28.80 30%
A& 19.2°/ 2 1 °/28.8°/ 25% 0 Scenario 4
19.20 / 23.40 / 22.4% 20% O Scenario 3
• 21.626.40%r \l 15% O Scenario 2
19.20
23.3% 16 25.1% 10% ■Scenario 1
19.9° 5%
/ 23.6% 0%
18.5% 8.3%
10r~ 20.6% TSoe
° Soe ha~~O
ha~/° 2
~ Soe ~~O 3
1A Sc ha~~o if
o eh
C6
~~a
Annual Water Bill with In-budget Use
for SFR Customer w/ 9000 sf
(Non-drought average = $495)
$450
$400
$350
$300 Stage 1
-.*-Stage 2
-o- Stage 3
$250 -Stage 4
$200
$150
$100
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
SFR Annual Water Budget Amount
for SFR Customer w/ 9000 sf
(Non-drought average = 212 thousand gallons)
180
160
140
N
C
O
Stage 1
tStage 2
0 120
y Stage 3
o -Stage 4
L
r
100
80
60
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
7
Annual Water Bill with Continuation of Non-Drought Use Level
for SFR Customer w/ 9000 sf
(Non-drought average = $495)
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
Stage 1
$1,000 Stage 2
Stage 3
$800 (Stage 4
$600
$400 -
$200
$0
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
8
Change in Water Utility Revenue from SFR and MFR Accounts
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
N
$0 R
0
0
-$1,000,000 -*--Scenario 1
- t - L t
(D , = Scenario 2
;ao ~o .9o ~o
N p` U) p` Cn o N o - Scenario 3
Scenario 4
-$2,000,000 Scenario 5
-$3,000,000
-$4,000,000
-$5,000,000
Change in Water Utility Revenue from CII Accounts
$500,000
N
$0
_ 0
L - L = L > L
N C7 d Cf ~ ~ ~
U) o N o` o -$500,000
-*--Scenario 1
Scenario 2
-$1,000,000 -&--Scenario 3
Scenario 4
(-Scenario 5
-$1,500,000
-$2,000,000
-$2,500,000
9