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07.16.24 PB Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services StudyCITY OF BOULDER PLANNING BOARD INFORMATION ITEM TO: Planning Board FROM: Nuria Rivera-Vandermyde, City Manager Chris Meschuk, Deputy City Manager Mark Woulf, Assistant City Manager Brad Mueller, Planning & Development Services (P&DS) Director Kristofer Johnson, Comprehensive Planning Senior Manager, P&DS Sarah Horn, Senior City Planner, P&DS Chris Douville, Deputy Director of Operations, Utilities Chris Douglass, Utilities Engineering Senior Manager, Utilities Kim Hutton, Water Resources Senior Manager, Utilities Valerie Watson, Deputy Director, Transportation & Mobility Gerrit Slatter, Civil Engineering Senior Manager, Transport. & Mobility Ali Rhodes, Director, Parks & Recreation Mark Davison, Planning Senior Manager, Parks & Recreation Joel Wagner, Deputy Director, Finance James Macdonald, Tax Manager, Finance Laurel Witt, Assistant City Attorney II, City Attorney’s Office DATE: July 16, 2024 SUBJECT: Area III-Planning Reserve Urban Services Study (USS) – Preliminary Scenario Evaluations EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this study session is to provide an update to Planning Board on the progress of the Area III-Planning Reserve Urban Services Study (USS), review the service demand scenario assumptions and outcomes, and highlight any important considerations that have been identified through preliminary analysis. Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 1 of 14 The Urban Service Study (USS) is the first of three steps in exploring the potential feasibility of extending urban services and possible Service Area expansion into the Area III-Planning Reserve (Planning Reserve). Per the Boulder Valley Comprehensive Plan (BVCP), “the purpose of the study is to learn more about the feasibility and requirements to provide urban services to the area, and to understand potential phasing and logical areas of planning and potential expansion.” This study was initiated in response to a Council priority that was identified in 2022. City Council’s stated desire at that time was to complete the study prior to the next major update to the BVCP to inform a decision on whether to continue with the service area expansion process as a part of that update. The USS will provide only an objective technical analysis of the feasibility, phasing, and potential costs of extending urban services into the Planning Reserve (Step 1). It will identify important policy considerations but will not make recommendations on how to address them. The outcomes of the study will help inform whether Planning Board and City Council wish to proceed with an evaluation of unmet community needs (Step 2) and then decide whether to initiate a Service Area expansion planning process (Step 3). City staff, along with the AECOM consultant team, have completed an existing conditions report and created scenarios to analyze the cost and infrastructure requirements of varying levels of conceptual demand, all based on various assumed urban levels of development. The project team is currently working through the preliminary evaluations of the serviced demand scenarios to prepare initial outcomes and identify any considerations presented by each. This memo includes an initial evaluation of the scenarios, representing varying degrees of service demand, along with two key discussion questions related to the evaluation. The purpose of this agenda item is to provide an update to Planning Board on project progress and collect feedback on the draft scenarios. Staff and the consultant will present information from the scenario testing but have not provided interpretation or analysis regarding policy or infrastructure cost implications at this time. This meeting is intended to give members the opportunity to provide comments on the scenario assumptions and urban service areas that are being analyzed. Based on feedback, the AECOM team and staff will continue to develop more detailed analysis of each scenario related to the provision of the urban services to the Planning Reserve. The project team will present the final draft USS with this analysis to Planning Board on October 15, 2024, for review and to City Council on October 17, 2024, for review and acceptance. PROJECT BACKGROUND The Area III-Planning Reserve (Planning Reserve) is approximately 500 acres in size and was identified through the 1993 Area III Planning Project as the portion of Area III where the city maintains the option of expansion for future urban development in response to priority community needs that cannot be met within the existing Service Area (Areas I and II). Nearly 200 acres of the 500 acres was acquired by the city and is designated for parks and related uses. Most of the remaining acreage is held in private ownership. Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 2 of 14 The process for Service Area expansion (i.e., conversion of the Planning Reserve to Area II which allows for annexation) was subsequently set in place in 1995 and is defined in the BVCP to ensure a methodical approach to potential expansion of the city into the Planning Reserve. In 2015, the process was revised to incorporate the Urban Services Study as the first step in the expansion process. The Urban Service Study is the first of three steps in exploring the potential feasibility of extending urban services and possible Service Area expansion into the Planning Reserve. The USS will provide an objective technical analysis of the feasibility, phasing, and potential costs of extending urban services into the Planning Reserve (Step 1). It will identify important policy considerations but will not make recommendations on how to address them. If Council accepts the study, “the door is open” for Council and Planning Board to hold public hearings to consider including an evaluation of unmet community needs as part of an update to the Comprehensive Plan (Step 2). Council could also accept the study, yet decide not to proceed with Step 2 at this time. If Council chooses not to accept the study, “the door is closed” to considering an evaluation of unmet community need during the Comprehensive Plan update. Council still maintains the option to revisit acceptance of the USS again in the future to re- initiate the 3-step process. At the completion of Step 2, public hearings are held to determine if the unmet community needs are of sufficient priority to require Service Area expansion. If so, Planning Board and Council then have the option to initiate a Service Area expansion planning process (Step 3). The USS is being led by the Planning & Development Services Comprehensive Planning team in collaboration with a consultant, AECOM, and various city departments directly responsible for providing urban services. The completed study will be reviewed by Planning Board and can be accepted by City Council, should they wish to move ahead with Step 2 of the process. The study is expected to be finished by Q4 2024, in advance of the next major update to the BVCP. The study will provide an analysis of baseline data to help the Boulder community and decision-makers understand the potential scope, extent and feasibility of expanding city services to the area. The BVCP states that “adequate urban facilities and services” are a prerequisite for new urban development. Urban services as defined by the BVCP specifically include: • Public water • Public sewer • Stormwater and flood mitigation • Urban fire protection and emergency medical care • Urban police protection • Multimodal transportation • Developed urban parks More details on the goals, outcomes, and scope of work for the USS can be found in the Information Packet provided to City Council on October 19, 2023. More details on Area III- Planning Reserve existing conditions can be found in the Information Packet provided to City Council on April 18, 2024. Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 3 of 14 PROJECT TIMELINE PROCESS AND ENGAGEMENT As a technical study rather than a policy-setting process, the engagement approach is at the Inform level. Staff regularly update the project website with relevant information as the project progresses. To date, staff have sent communications to City Council on three occasions. An IP memo with details related to the scope of work and schedule was sent on October 19, 2023, and a Heads- Up message was sent by the City Manager’s Office on February 9, 2024, confirming that the project was proceeding on schedule. A second IP memo was delivered on April 18, 2024, discussing the initial existing conditions assessment performed as part of the USS. Each of these communications has been shared with Planning Board to keep you informed. Staff held a study session with City Council on June 27, 2024 to discuss the preliminary scenario evaluations. Key takeaways from the discussion included the following: Non-Residential Square Footage • Council Discussion: Council had concerns about the high quantity of commercial space proposed in the scenarios. They directed staff to explore scenarios where this area provides neighborhood-serving commercial and services, rather than as a city or regional employment center. Commercial spaces would be integrated into mixed-use environments, aiming for a balanced neighborhood rather than a regional approach. • Staff Response: The original scenario assumptions were based on attempting to create a balance between new residential neighborhoods, local commercial activity, and employment opportunities in the area to support a 15-minute neighborhood concept and mitigate some vehicle trips. Staff will revise the scenarios as requested by Council to reduce the amount of non-residential square footage to be more reflective of assuming only neighborhood-serving commercial and services. Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 4 of 14 Flexibility and Creativity in Analysis • Council Discussion: Discussions highlighted the need for flexibility, especially regarding the potential impact of changing scenarios on the analysis and development plans. Some Council members would like staff to use more creative and innovative approaches to the scenarios – for example, what infrastructure and/or financial impacts would result from a scenario that uses less water, uses district energy approaches, or assumes less vehicle traffic. • Staff Response: Staff considers the purpose of the USS and corresponding assumptions to be to establish a baseline analysis of current policy and practice standards. The USS will serve as a ‘business as usual’ baseline that future planning efforts and more detailed policy conversations can be measured against to understand their effectiveness as alternatives to the base case. If the study is accepted and the process moves on to future steps, options for innovation and creative planning alternatives would be included as part of those future conversations. Staff will clearly document assumptions and rationale in the final USS and provide initial information on alternative options that can be explored in more detail during future steps to potentially mitigate the impacts of current policy and traditional approaches. Green Space, Parks, and use of City-owned Land • Council Discussion: Council was interested in considerations regarding the allocation of green spaces, including neighborhood vs. regional parks, and their adequacy in meeting community needs. Questions were asked about whether all of the city-owned land identified for future regional park would be needed for parks or if other uses, including housing, could be appropriate. Through a nod-of-five, a majority of members directed staff to explore a fourth scenario option that would consider using a portion of the ~190 acres of park land to increase the available city-owned land for residential development. • Staff Response: Staff explained Boulder hovers around the national median for park acres per capita. Based on future population growth projections, the city would need to utilize the 190 acres of park land in the Area III – Planning Reserve, and other undeveloped regional park land at Valmont City Park and Foothills Community Park, to maintain this level of service. There are potentially other areas across the city where additional park land could be acquired and subsequently not require that all 190 acres in the Reserve be used as a regional park. Staff will incorporate a fourth scenario that assumes a portion of the park land as additional residential area in the final USS. Assessing Water Resources and Infrastructure • Council Discussion: Council is interested in further assessing water supply issues and infrastructure capabilities to meet future demands, particularly under varying climate scenarios. • Staff Response: Staff will analyze the projected water demands based on the scenarios and determine if the city can reliably meet those demands. Staff understands that a changing climate can lead to drier conditions (and even wetter conditions under some climate models) that could result in an imbalance in demand and supply. The city’s current water supply and service standards account for a variety of different climate scenarios to test the system. Changes to the existing level of service standards could be evaluated as a future policy- related discussion depending on the impact of future growth projections and climate change on water resources. Staff will clearly describe the potential impacts of the Area III-Planning Reserve demand scenarios on water resources and any threshold limits that may be identified through the analysis. Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 5 of 14 Engagement with Landowners and Community Members • Council Discussion: Questions arose about the level of involvement and engagement with landowners and the broader community in the planning process, particularly regarding indigenous voices and other priority groups. A request was made for inclusive decision- making processes that incorporate diverse community voices and innovative approaches. • Staff Response: Staff responded the Inform level is an appropriate level of engagement at this time as the USS is meant to help the community and decision-makers understand the basic framework and potential impacts of expansion into the Planning Reserve as a baseline for future community discussion. Future steps in the Service Area expansion process will include robust community engagement that will elevate well beyond the Inform level. The final study will frame the important policy questions that the community and decision makers will evaluate as part of those future conversations if the process moves forward. Staff will commit to robust and inclusive engagement strategies as part of future steps if the process continues after the USS. Transportation and Infrastructure Planning • Council Discussion: Concerns were raised about possible vehicular roadway expansion as a response to increased vehicle trips caused by additional development in the area. Some Council members emphasized the need to mitigate traffic impacts and integrate sustainable transportation strategies into the scenarios. • Staff Response: The team began with traditional assumptions that, would likely result in the consideration of roadway expansion, or reserving right-of-way for future expansion, to accommodate additional vehicle trips. CDOT has been willing to consider alternative solutions to expanding vehicle capacity to accommodate city multi-modal goals and we expect them to continue to be a supportive partner. Staff will develop a trip budget based on existing system capacity and identify transportation demand management strategies and other methods to accommodate the impacts of additional vehicle trips in the final USS. Housing and Population Trends • Council Discussion: Council wanted to understand how housing needs, affordability, and how demographic trends and future population growth were factored into planning assumptions and scenario evaluations. • Staff Response: Staff looked to comparable examples of neighborhood character across the city. One scenario was modeled around the Holiday neighborhood as a possible lower end of the service demand spectrum, and the higher end was based on the limitations presented by the city’s 55-foot height limits and other site/architectural constraints. The three scenarios provide for an analysis of service demands across a range of options but are not reflective of predicted population growth. Staff will clearly document assumptions and rationale in the final USS. ANALYSIS Planning Board’s feedback on the following will help inform the more detailed analysis that will be included in the final USS report, which staff will present to Planning Board on Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 6 of 14 October 15 for review and City Council on October 17, 2024, for acceptance. Staff has identified the following key questions to help guide the discussion: 1. Does Planning Board have any questions or comments on the scenarios that have been developed to inform the analysis? 2. Does Planning Board have any questions or comments on the urban services/infrastructure areas that will be analyzed based on the scenarios? 1) Scenarios AECOM and the core project team hosted a workshop with staff from Planning & Development Services, Utilities, Transportation & Mobility, Finance, Housing & Human Services, Parks & Recreation, and the City Attorney’s Office to develop assumptions for each service demand scenario. The purpose of the workshop was to understand the relative scale, proportion, and dimensions of conceptual outcomes to inform the assumptions for a range of service demand scenarios. The USS uses generalized data and broad assumptions cross-checked against the Boulder context to lead to an order-of-magnitude understanding of the potential cost and infrastructure effects to deliver urban services to the Planning Reserve. More in-depth analysis of market dynamics, proposed land uses, and detailed site planning would occur at future steps of the Service Area expansion process. Below is a summary of the basic framework that was created to define assumptions for a mix of uses, housing densities, mobility network, and developable area across the Planning Reserve. • Scenario Policy and Service Demand Assumptions o The Planning Reserve would incorporate a mix of non-residential and residential uses o Land purchased with Parks & Recreation funding will be used for a regional park o No large lot rural residential use is anticipated o A mix of residential housing types is assumed ranging from the Holiday neighborhood (8-12 units per acre) to Red Oak Park (20-30 units per acre) to Boulder Junction (30-50 units per acre) o Estimated population and job generation are based on current P&DS land use standards o Streets, multi-use paths, and bicycle/pedestrian facilities are based on Boulder Design & Construction Standards o Water and wastewater demand are based on Utilities’ data o Tax and revenue generation are based on Finance data o Neighborhood Park demands are based on Parks & Recreation Level of Service data and National Recreation and Parks Association benchmarks o Emergency services requirements are based on data from Police and Fire departments • Scenario Use Categories o Non-residential  Mixed use commercial Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 7 of 14  Business (office, retail, etc.)  Light industrial and manufacturing  Public/community services o Residential  Mixed use residential  Range of housing types and densities o Parks & Recreation  Regional Park  Additional neighborhood parks o Transportation Right-of-Way (ROW)  Primary Streets (including bike/ped facilities)  Multi-Use Paths • Potential Developable Area o Potential developable area includes all properties except US Forest Service ranger station (approximately 5 acres), land purchased with moneys from the permanent Parks and Recreation fund (approximately 189 acres), and initial assumed needs for transportation right-of-way such as streets and multi-use paths (approximately 37 acres). o The remaining developable area (approximately 262 acres) would be available to accommodate residential uses, assumed to be at a range of housing types/densities, and non-residential uses such as business, light industrial, etc. This area would also include any additional park land needed to serve the community Potential Developable Area (262 acres) 53% Future Regional Park (189 acres) 38% Transportation ROW (37 acres) 8% US Forest Service (5 acres) 1% Planning Reserve Developable Area Summary Potential Developable Area (262 acres) Future Regional Park (189 acres) Transportation ROW (37 acres) US Forest Service (5 acres) Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 8 of 14 Initial Service Demand Scenario Evaluations AECOM leveraged urban planning tools and a two-hour, in-person workshop with staff from several City departments to frame the physical capacity for development within the planning reserve across a range of Service Demand Scenarios (A, B, and C), considering factors related to slope, topography, road capacity, and other potential constraints on development to help define developable acreage. Three Service Demand Scenarios were developed to illustrate the feasibility and impacts of providing municipal services to the Planning Reserve. The purpose of scenario development is to understand the big picture infrastructure and urban service needs for a wide variety of future potential outcomes, so the city can make informed future decisions. The scenarios are points on a spectrum of potential development outcomes, and are not intended to represent choices, or the only available options. They are intended to capture moderate bookends of potential demand to model urban service needs. The three scenarios identify different land uses within the Planning Reserve, and each scenario estimates non-residential gross floor area, jobs, residential units, and population. Assumptions were also included regarding the network of local and collector streets and multi-use paths to connect areas within the Planning Reserve and externally to existing areas of Boulder west and south of US 36. Scenario A Scenario A assumes approximately 4,300 dwelling units, 725,000 Gross Square Feet (GSF) of non-residential development (such as commercial, retail and community services) and over 200 acres of land to accommodate a regional park and local-serving neighborhood parks. This scenario allows for mixed-use nodes surrounded by a mix of residential densities ranging from 12 dwelling units per acre to approximately 50 dwelling units per acre. More than half of the residential portion is comprised of lower density attached residential (approximately 12 dwelling units per acre). Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 9 of 14 Scenario B Scenario B assumes approximately 5,300 dwelling units, 972,000 GSF of non-residential development (such as commercial, retail and community services) and over 215 acres of land to accommodate a regional park and local serving neighborhood parks. Scenario B allows for mixed-use nodes, light industrial and/or manufacturing, and community services surrounded by a mix of residential densities and housing types. More than half of the residential portion is comprised of medium density attached residential (approximately 30 units per acre). Residential (217 Acres)… Parks and Recreation (205 Acres) 41% Transportaion ROW (37 Acres) 8% Non-Residential (30 Acres)US Forest Service (5 Acres)… Planning Reserve Scenario A Land Use Summary Residential (217 Acres) Parks and Recreation (205 Acres) Transportaion ROW (37 Acres) Non-Residential (30 Acres) US Forest Service (5 Acres) Residential (195 Acres) 40%Parks and Recreation (217 Acres) 44% Transportaion ROW (37 Acres) 8% Non-Residential (40 Acres)…US Forest Service (5 … Planning Reserve Scenario B Land Use Summary Residential (195 Acres) Parks and Recreation (217 Acres) Transportaion ROW (37 Acres) Non-Residential (40 Acres) US Forest Service (5 Acres) Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 10 of 14 Scenario C Scenario C includes approximately 6,700 dwelling units, 1,004,000 GSF of non-residential development (such as commercial, retail and community services) and over 215 acres of land to accommodate a regional park and local serving neighborhood parks. Scenario C allows for mixed-use nodes, and community services surrounded by a mix of residential densities and housing types. Medium and higher density residential housing types (30 and 50 units per acre, respectively) combine to account for more than half of the residential portion in this scenario. Table 1 below is a summary comparison of the conceptual development assumptions for Scenarios A, B, and C. The team attempted to identify a range of outcomes on a spectrum of potential development futures that would help identify critical infrastructure upgrades and test the feasibility of Service Area expansion under different conditions. TABLE 1: Scenario Summary Comparison ESTIMATED OUTCOMES A B C NON-RESIDENTIAL GROSS FLOOR AREA (SQUARE FEET) 725,000 972,000 1,004,000 EMPLOYMENT (JOBS) 1,900 2,700 3,100 RESIDENTIAL UNITS 4,300 5,300 6,700 POPULATION 9,350 11,600 14,500 PARK - REGIONAL (ACRES) 189 189 189 PARK - NEIGHBORHOOD (ACRES) 15.6 27.9 27.9 Residential (195 … Parks and Recreation (217 Acres) 44% Transportaion ROW (37 Acres)… Non-Residential (40 Acres) 7%US Forest Service (5 … Planning Reserve Scenario C Land Use Summary Residential (195 Acres) Parks and Recreation (217 Acres) Transportaion ROW (37 Acres) Non-Residential (40 Acres) US Forest Service (5 Acres) Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 11 of 14 2) Urban Services Infrastructure • Public Water o Water demands will be modeled at a later phase in the project to determine if the existing water supply is sufficient to meet the needs of the existing water service area and the Planning Reserve. o Water demands will be modeled with Boulder’s water modeling program in a future phase of this Project to identify if the system has capacity (including treatment, storage, and conveyance) to serve the Planning Reserve. Preliminary evaluations indicate there may be off-site upgrades to upstream infrastructure necessary to deliver water to the Planning Reserve. • Public Sewer o Wastewater flows for the Planning Reserve will be modeled in Boulder’s wastewater hydraulic model to discern if there is sufficient capacity in the existing wastewater collection system to serve the Planning Reserve. o The projected wastewater flows are being developed and will be used to identify if the Boulder Water Resource Recovery Facility capacity will need to be increased. • Stormwater / Regional Detention Approach o Due to the capacity issues related to the existing stormwater infrastructure, the Planning Reserve may need a stand-alone separate stormwater system that would ultimately discharge into the natural drainageway that borders the north side of the area. o City of Boulder will need to perform a Watershed Study and Flood Plan to include the Planning Reserve area to understand the flooding potential that developing this area would have on downstream properties and guide decisions on how to manage the stormwater for the area. o To minimize flooding downstream, the City of Boulder may need to consider providing regional detention and a water quality pond to manage stormwater runoff. Providing an on-site regional detention facility would shift how the City has traditionally managed stormwater, but this could be an opportunity to update the City’s approach to stormwater management for new developments. • Multimodal Transportation o Preliminary transportation analysis suggests CDOT may require some auto capacity improvements along US 36 to accommodate the additional trips generated by development in the Planning Reserve (i.e., widening). The City of Boulder will need to coordinate with CDOT to identify and implement the most appropriate transportation improvements to address additional vehicle, bicycle, and pedestrian movements from the Planning Reserve. Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 12 of 14 • Urban Fire Protection & Emergency Medical Care o Preliminary analysis with Fire department staff indicate that the primary effect of future development in the Planning Reserve may be a need for additional ambulance and medical response capabilities. Existing Fire staff capacity and equipment may be sufficient. Additionally, wildfire hardening of architectural materials and development patterns may also be necessary. • Urban Police Protection o Preliminary findings and discussion with Police staff indicate that additional officers and equipment may be necessary to serve the Planning Reserve. A shift in population distribution across the city caused by future development of the Planning Reserve may require redrawing of police district boundaries to address a new population center on the north side. • Future Urban Parks o Urban Park Levels of Service: 189 acres were purchased with funds from the permanent Parks and Recreation Fund and for the purpose of meeting future community parks and recreation needs. Per Section 154 of the Charter, purchase of the property for parks and recreation purposes and the use of funds from the permanent Parks and Recreation defines these 189 acres as “park land.” o Per Section 162 of the Charter, disposal of park land requires an affirmative vote of at least 4 members of the Parks and Recreation Advisory Board, a non-binding recommendation from the Planning Board, and approval by City Council. o Based on population projections and current park land inventory, by 2040 the city will need to utilize all undeveloped park land at Valmont City Park, Foothills Community Park, and the Area III-Planning Reserve for park uses to maintain current parks & recreation Levels of Service and to keep pace with local and national benchmark communities. • Fiscal Considerations o Cost estimation for infrastructure build-out has not been developed at this point in the project, nor have detailed forecasts for additional tax, fee and service revenues related to the project. As work continues a key challenge will be one of timing. o Development of the area will require significant capital expenditures several years before the area reaches stabilization. It is unlikely that current fund balances in the city’s utility, transportation, parks, and general funds will be sufficient to fund the required capital expenditures without utilizing debt financing. Any debt financing decision will have to be weighed against other citywide priorities and will depend upon budget decisions made by Council in the years preceding annexation decisions. To finance the expansion, the city may have to consider alternative strategies such as Public-Private Partnerships. Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 13 of 14 NEXT STEPS The project team will continue to work with AECOM to address Planning Board and City Council comments and analyze the service demand scenarios to develop a more detailed understanding of the required infrastructure improvements and associated fiscal impacts (construction costs, potential additional tax revenue, etc.). Staff plans to review the final draft urban services study with Planning Board on October 15, 2024, and bring it forward to City Council on October 17, 2024, for acceptance. If City Council accepts the study and directs staff to proceed, public hearings will be scheduled with Planning Board and Council in late 2024 to discuss whether staff should incorporate a process to assess unmet community needs as part of the next Comprehensive Plan update. Item 5A Area III Planning Reserve Urban Services Study Page 14 of 14