PD Strategic Action Plan and Crime Update PresentationCrime Science &
Boulder Crime
Presentation to City Council, June 22, 2021
Julie Wartell, Executive Advisor, Boulder Police Department
Michael Zidar, IT Consultant, Zidar Analytics
Katie Bridges, IT Data Senior Analyst, Boulder Innovation & Technology
Presentation Outline
What is Crime Science?
How does it apply to policing?
Core concepts
◦The 80/20 Rule
◦Routine Activity Theory
◦Crime Pattern Theory
◦Situational Crime Prevention
Crime in Boulder
Community Crime Dashboard
What is
Crime
Science?
Applies scientific methods to study and prevent crime
and disorder.
Uses evidence to understand crime trends and
patterns.
Promotes a multi-disciplinary approach to crime
problems, integrating policing with geography,
statistics, psychology, computer science, urban
planning, etc.
Explains how and why crime events occur.
Why is it Important to Apply Crime Science?
Crime science promotes ethical, effective, and equitable policing
Core Principles:
◦Prevention is more effective than apprehension
◦Requires partnerships with a wide variety of stakeholders (community members, businesses, city departments, etc.)
◦High-intensity enforcement alone for prevention is not sustainable or desirable
◦Community members want police to address crime and quality of life issues
◦Police efforts should be highly focused on conditions that create community harm
Core Crime Science
Concepts/Theories
80/20
Rule
Routine
Activity
Theory
Crime
Pattern
Theory
Situational
Crime
Prevention
80-20 Rule
Pareto Principle –80% of consequences stem from 20% of causes
Crime is highly concentrated across people (offenders and victims) and places
Visualized as a j-curve:
Most Crime No Crime0
Most experience
little or no crime
Some have a modest
amount of crime
A few have most
of the crimeOffenders
Victims
Places
Systematic Review of Crime Concentration at
Places, Offenders, & Victims
Law of Crime Concentration
◦19 Place Effects
◦27 Offender Effects
◦20 Victim Effects
20% (people and places)
account for 50-60% of crime.
Eck, Lee, Martinez, &O, 2017
University Hill
CALLS FOR SERVICE
JANUARY 2018 –APRIL 2021
There are 1,539
rental properties in
University Area
Housing (UAH).
BPD received 18,415
calls for service to
UAH rental properties
between
January 2018
and April 2021.
There were 944
calls for service to
24 Fraternity/Sorority Houses.
The top 20% account for
43.3% of calls for service for
this housing type.
There were 2,620
calls for service to
98 Condominiums.
The top 20% account for
70.0% of calls for service for
this housing type.
There were 7,522
calls for service to
215 Apartment Complexes
(top 20% = 57.5%).
There were 2,811 calls for service
to 602 Single Family Dwellings
(top 20 = 55.4%).
There were 4,004
calls for service to
514 Du/Tri/Four Complexes.
The top 20% account for 52.0% of
calls for service for this housing type.
Routine Activity
Theory
Crime occurs when three
elements come together:
Motivated Offender +
Suitable Target +
Facilitating Place
Controllers can prevent
the crime event:
Handlers or Guardians or
Managers Crime Analysis Triangle
San Juan Community
CRIME PATTERN AND TRENDS
Complex Name # Units Occ*CFS CFS per Unit CFS per Occ
San Juan Del Centro 150 600 662 4.41 1.10
Cavalier Apartments 220 688 236 1.07 0.34
Creekside Apartment 141 564 179 1.27 0.32
The Hive at 9Seventy 138 552 124 0.90 0.22
Boulder Creek Apartments 142 568 114 0.80 0.20
Kensington Apartments 163 652 123 0.75 0.19
Blue Sky Lofts 108 432 72 0.67 0.17
Two Nine North 238 952 132 0.55 0.14
Canyon Creek Apartments 176 704 78 0.44 0.11
Peloton 104 416 40 0.38 0.10
Canterwood Apartments 216 864 44 0.20 0.05
*Maximum unrelated occupancy
Boulder
Apartment
Calls for
Service
Number of Calls for Service
(n = 725)
173
90
174
207 230
58*
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
*through April
Number of Incident Reports
(n = 281)
25 21
70 67
77
21*
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
*through April
What changed
between
2017 & 2018?
Different management practices or willingness to
report?
New offenders or fewer handlers?
Increase in vulnerable victims or fewer guardians?
Crime Science Principle: Importance of being crime specific
25 21
70 67 77
21*
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
*through April
Top Incident Types
Disorderly Behavior (34)
Assault (28)
Property Damage (23)
Domestic Violence (22)
Theft (16)
Trespass (13)
Runaway (8)
Top Call Types
Disturbance (110)
Medical Call (68)
Welfare Check (58)
Domestic Disturbance (56)
Fire Works Complaints (37)
Theft (40)
Noise Complaint (39)
Harassment (38)
Problem Disturbances
Noise Complaints
Criminal
Mischief/Graffiti Thefts Juvenile
Runaways
Place
Management
Intervention
24-7
Management
Teams, Resident
hotline/online
reporting systems
Create space
for art walls or
murals; Youth
activities
Security
cameras;
Lighting;
Prevention
materials
Connect
families with
service
resources and
information
Active Place Management to
Block Opportunities
Crime Pattern
Theory
Journey to crime
(nodes, paths, edges)
Ways that offenders find
suitable targets:
◦Know victim personally
◦Work
◦“Activity spaces” generate
awareness of attractive
crime targets
= Nodes (home, recreation, shopping, etc.)
= Paths
= Places with attractive crime targets
= Crime event
Downtown Corridor Burglary Analysis
January 1, 2018 –March 9, 2021
Area experienced 83
burglaries.
80% of burglaries
(n=66) occurred within
10 street segments or
intersections.
Of the 46 victims, 14
were repeat victims,
accounting for 52% of
burglaries in hot
segments/intersections.
Burglary Intervention in
Offender Awareness Space
Mix of foot and vehicle directed patrols.
Following Koper Curve deployment of 10 -16
minute intermittent deployment to increase
visibility and positive community engagement in
risky activity spaces.
Officers engage with repeat victims and help
identify and address environmental facilitators.
Preliminary analysis -comprehensive evaluation
to follow.
Directed Patrol Activity Impact
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018-2019 Average Monthly Burglaries 2020 Burglaries 2021 Burglaries
Directed Patrol Implementation
*
* June 20
Situational Crime
Prevention
Grounded in Rational Choice Theory
Acknowledges that much crime is opportunistic
Crime is more likely to occur when crime opportunities are:
◦Effortless (little physical effort)
◦Less risky (low risk of being detected)
◦Highly rewarding (quick gratification or great compensation)
◦Provoked (people can be incited in the moment)
◦Excusable (have justifications for harmful behavior)
The SCP framework offers techniques to block crime
opportunities
Bike Theft Concentration
5389 street segments in the city and 84% of them have
0 bike thefts
Segments with 3+ thefts are on 4.5% of the street
segments but account for 65.6% of the thefts
Top street segments:
2800-3000 E. Aurora (53)
900-1100 28th St. (32)
Top addresses:
5170 Table Mesa Dr. (19) –Parking Garage
2915 Baseline Rd. (14) –University Area Apartments
BPD SCP Response
INCREASING EFFORT AND RISK
Theft prevention cards distributed along high-theft
segments
◦Effective locking practices
◦Discounted locks at local shops w/card
◦Parking suggestions (well-lit, high traffic areas)
Security assessments of Boulder bike shops
REDUCING REWARDS
Bicycle registration through Bike Index
Undercover operations to disrupt markets
REDUCING PROVOCATIONS
Community awareness campaign to reduce tempting targets
◦Media releases, community forums, coverage in bike
magazine (Bicycle Industry and Retailer News)
2021 Year-to-date
compared to 2020
>30% reduction
in incidents and
#bikes stolen
Boulder Crime Update
About the
National
Incident Based
Reporting
System
(NIBRS)
Maintained by the FBI
Designed to account for multiple offenses in
one crime incident
Three major categories:
◦Offenses against persons
◦Ex. Robbery, Assault, Harassment
◦Offenses against property
◦Ex. Theft, Burglary, Property Damage
◦Offenses against society
◦Ex. Drugs, Prostitution, Liquor Violations
In 2021, there have been 4,150 reports*
involving NIBRS offenses
*Reports can contain multiple offenses
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecCount of ReportsMonth of Year
NIBRS Offense Reports
Normal Range 2021 Year-to-Date 5 Year Average
Offense Trends: Overview
Offenses against property have increased steadily since 2019
◦Year -to-date offenses against persons are up by 29% from the 5-year
average
Offenses against persons are down by 13% from 2020
◦Offenses against persons remain stable when compared to the 5-year
average
Offenses against society have declined in the most recent year
◦Year -to-date offenses against society have declined by 33% from the
5-year average (decriminalization trends/COVID-19 impacts)
2091 2038
2284 2146
2515
2868
1167 1050
1240
969 880 715
393 410 405 419 485 423
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Count of Offenses in NIBRS ReportsYear -to-Date NIBRS Offenses By Category
Against Property Against Society Against Persons
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52Count of NIBRS OffensesWeek of Year
NIBRS Offenses Against Property by Week of Year
Normal Range 2021 Year-to-Date 5 Year Average
Property Crime Drivers 2021 20-21 Change 5YA-21 Change
All Other Larceny 731 -10%-16%
Arson 11 120%67%
Bad Checks 1 -86%-93%
Burglary / Breaking and Entering 267 -9%31%
Counterfeiting / Forgery 13 -38%-59%
Credit Card / ATM Fraud 49 32%43%
Destruction / Damage / Vandalism of Property 453 -6%12%
Embezzlement 0 ---100%
Extortion / Blackmail 9 80%41%
False Pretenses / Swindle / Confidence Game 25 25%3%
Hacking/Computer Invasion 14 75%100%
Identity Theft 620 292%440%
Impersonation 18 -51%-80%
Motor Vehicle Theft 200 33%79%
Shoplifting 62 -50%3%
Theft from a Building 0 ---100%
Theft from a Coin-Operated Machine or Device 0 ---100%
Theft from a Motor Vehicle 293 -13%29%
Theft of Motor Vehicle Parts or Accessories 102 629%405%
Wire Fraud 0 ---100%
Stolen Property Offenses (Receiving etc.)0 -100%-100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52Count of NIBRS OffensesWeek of Year
NIBRS Offenses Against Person by Week of Year
Normal Range 2021 Year-to-Date 5 Year Average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52Count of NIBRS OffensesWeek of Year
NIBRS Offenses Against Society by Week of Year
Normal Range 2021 Year-to-Date 5 Year Average
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
Boulder Community Crime Dashboard
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
Introduction open-data.bouldercolorado.gov
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
Navigating Open Data
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
BPD Crime Data
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
BPD Crime Data
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
Filter BPD Crime Data
We want to look at
all Credit Card or
ATM Fraud Crimes
that have occurred
in 2021
Filter 1 Filter 2
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
Export BPD Crime Data
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
BPD Crime Data in Excel
City of Boulder
Innovation & Technology
BPD Crime App Live Demo