Non-Agenda Item - Memorandum re: City's 2001 Boulder Valley Count Program
MEMORANDUM
TO: Members of the Transportation Advisory Board
Members of the Planning Board
Tracy Winfree
Michael J. Gardner-Sweeney
Joe Paulson
Bob Major
Michelle Coffelt
Nataly Handlos
Micki Kaplan
Marni Ratzel
Andrea Robbins
Randall Rutsch
Bob Whitson
Noreen Walsh
Joan Salas
Steve Durian
Commander Tom Wickman, Boulder PD - Traffic
Bill Fox, Fox Higgins Transportation Group t
Steve Tuttle, Transplan Associates Inc. t
Jim Charlier, Chartier Associates Inc. t
Larry Haas, Colorado Department of Transportation t
Mike Thomas, Boulder County Transportation t
FROM: Bill Cowern, Transportation Operations Engineer
DATE: June 18, 2002
SUBJECT: FYI - City's 2001 Boulder Valley Count Program
Attached you will find a compilation of the city's "2001 Boulder Valley Count Program". The City counts
traffic annually at 18 street locations on the edge of the "Boulder Valley Comprehensive Planning Area"
capturing all automobile trips into and out of the Boulder Valley area. Most of these locations have been
counted each year, since 1993.
Staff has performed statistical analyses of this data to determine if significant trends could be identified.
The results of these analyses are listed below:
A linear regression analysis of the total traffic (see attached table and graph) for the past nine years
(1993 to 2001), indicates that traffic into and out of the Boulder Valley is growing at approximately
2.9 percent per year. This represents an increase in the growth rate determined last year (2.8 percent
per year). Projected out, this would imply an increase of approximately 47 percent more traffic
entering/leaving Boulder by Year 2020. The "curve-fit" criteria indicates correlation in the data of
plus/minus 3.0 percent, so the projection is reliable.
The following summaries include all 18 count stations in the program;
• The 18 count stations (2001) are ranked by total volume.
Station Volume fvod)*
1. U.S. 36 south of Foothills Parkway 81,070
2. Diagonal Highway east of 71 st Street 43,320
3. South Boulder Road east of Paragon Drive 25,110
4. Broadway south of City Limits 20,030
5. Arapahoe Avenue east of 75th Street 17,460
6. U.S. 36 north of Broadway 12,720
7. State Highway 52 east of 71 st Street 12,620
8. Lookout Road east of 75th Street 10,040
9. Boulder Canyon west of Arapahoe Avenue 9,950
10. Baseline Road east of 76th Street 8,530
11. Valmont east of 75th Street 6,730
12. 63rd Street north of Monarch Road 5,920
13. Lee Hill Road west of 4th Street 4,900
14. Mapleton Avenue east of Green Rock Drive 3,200
15. Cherryvale Road south of South Boulder Road 3,020
16. Linden Avenue west of Spring Hill Road 3,000
17. Baseline Road west of Gregory Canyon 2,170
18. 51" Street north of Boulder Reservoir 2,030
This report looks at traffic in and out of the City of Boulder, in six distinct sections. These sections are
based on regional community connections. The six sections are summarized as follows:
1) North-West Section - Connecting Boulder and Lyons, this section includes only US-36 north of
Broadway.
2) North-East Section -Connecting Boulder with Longmont, Niwot, and Weld County communities, this
section includes the Diagonal Highway, State Highway 52, Lookout Road, 63rd Street and 51" Street.
3) East Section - Connecting Boulder with Erie, Lafayette and north Louisville, this section includes
Valmont Road, Arapahoe Road, Baseline Road and South Boulder Road (all east of Boulder).
4) South-East Section - Connecting Boulder with south Louisville, Broomfield and Denver-Metro
communities, this section includes only U.S. 36 south of Foothills Parkway.
5) South Section - Connecting Boulder with Golden, Marshall, Eldorado Springs, and Jefferson County
communities, this section includes Chen yvale Road and Broadway south of City Limits.
6) West Section - Connecting Boulder with the Foothills communities, this section includes Canyon
Boulevard, Lee Hill Road, Linden Avenue, Mapleton Avenue and Baseline Road east of Gregory
Canyon.
These regional directional summations are shown in Table 1 and in the attached Diagram A.
Diagram A provides a comparison of current traffic volumes (2001) to those used in the modeling efforts
of out Transportation Master Plan update (1996). Significant changes in traffic volume can be observed.
Diagram A also provides a summary of forecasted 2020 traffic volumes, based upon the linear regression
analyses for each individual count location. The following significant trends have been identified;
TABLE 1
2001 Traffic Percent of Total 2000 Traffic Percent Yearly
City Section Volume Volume (2001) Volume Growth
North-West 12,720 v 4.6 percent 12,470 v +2.0 percent
North-East 73,930 v 27.2 percent 72,420 v +2.1 percent
East 57,830 v 21.3 percent 62,240 v 7.1 reent
South-East 81,070 v 29.8 percent 73,730 v +10.0 rcent
+8.0 ercent
South 23,050 v 0d 8.5 percent 21,330 vpd
West 23,200 v pd 8.6 percent 23,610 v -1.7 percent
TOTAL 271,800 vpd 100 percent 265,800 vpd +2.3 percent
In general, traffic enteringlexiting the City of Boulder from the north-east, east, and south-east
significantly dominates the total amount of traffic entering the City. More than seventy eight percent
of all traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder comes from the roadways between Boulder and
communities to the north-east, east and south-east. The highest amount (30 percent) travels along US-
36 between Boulder and communities like north Louisville, Denver and Broomfield. The next highest
amount (27 percent) comes out of the north-east, and involves traffic traveling between Boulder and
communities like Longmont, Erie and Niwot. Only slightly less traffic (21 percent) is found traveling
between Boulder and communities to the east like Lafayette, south Louisville and Erie.
Traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder from the north-east, south-east and east have increased
significantly since the 1996 (TMP update). During this time period, traffic has increased from 59,000
vpd to 74,000 vpd (25 percent or 5.0 percent per year) on roadways connecting to communities in the
north-east. Traffic has increased from 73,000 vpd to 81,000 vpd (10 percent or 2.0 percent per year)
on US-36 near the south-east city limits of Boulder. Traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder from
the east has increased from 48,000 vpd to 58,000 vpd (21 percent or 4.0 percent per year). These
increases are in excess of those anticipated by the TMP update and may be attributable to faster job
and population growth in this area.
Traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder from the north-west, south, and west (foothills
communities) have stayed fairly constant since 1994. Total traffic enteringlexiting the City of Boulder
from all of these areas has increased from 54,000 vpd to 59,000 (8.5 percent or 1.7 percent per year
)during this time period.
The 18 count stations below are ranked by daily volume increase per year using the linear regression.
The regression data represents the time period of our count program (1993 to 2000). A negative slope
suggests that traffic is decreasing by that volume per year:
Station Increase (vvd/yr)
1. US-36 south of Foothills Parkway 2,023
2. Diagonal Highway north of Monarch Road 1,436
3. South Boulder Road east of Paragon Drive 927
4. Baseline east of 76th Street 454
5. State Highway 52 east of 71st Street 438
6. Broadway south of City Limits 403
7. Lookout Road east of 75th Street 342
8. Arapahoe east of 75th Street 303
9. Valmont east of 75th Street 247
10. U.S. 36 north of Broadway 233
11. Boulder Canyon west of Arapahoe Road 165
12. Cherryvale Road south of South Boulder Road 142
13. Mapleton Avenue east of Green Rock Drive 54
14. Linden Avenue west of Spring Hill Road 37
15. Lee Hill Road west of 4th Street -18
16. 63rd Street north of Monarch Road -18
17. Baseline Road west of Gregory Canyon -29
18. 51" Street north of Boulder Reservoir Limited Data Sample
Arterial Count Program Comparison
The City also performs an "Arterial Count Program" on a yearly basis. This program counts traffic at 17
different locations throughout the arterial network. The results of the this program are documented
separately but in summary, the 2001 program results showed that the traffic internal to the City of Boulder
has increased by approximately 1.8 percent per year. Growth in internal city traffic is less than growth of
traffic entering/exiting the City.
If you have any comments or suggestions, concerning the count programs, please feel free to contact me at
303441-3266 or e-mail me at CowernB@ciboulder.co.uS.
t - with attachments
* - vpd = vehicles per day
Boulder Valley Traffic Counts
5712
5922
63RD S 5357 AGO L HIG WAY
35747
NIA _ 43316
N/A__ _70390
55TH ST HIGHWAY 52
8204
12623-,
28976-1
HIGHWA 36, NORTH
11508 LOOKOUT RD 7264
12717
16418___ 10040
- 16152
4839 J LEE HILL RD
4895
4447
3201 LINDEN A E
~3 1
3750
VALMONT R 6086-
\ 14540
28999 MAP TON AVE
3196
4163
ARAPAHOE RD 13348
9760 BOULDER CAN 17464
946 27119_'.
11128 FLAG TAFF RD
1985 BASELINE D 64
2168 8534
1342 175_.68
S BOULDER R
CHERRYVALE RD 23783
_ 2279 _ 25110
BO DER TURNPIK 3019 36911
73391 5694
86066
112840 1 _
BROADWAY, SOU H
20030
20645
N 1996 data (TMP)
2001 Current
E 2020 Estimate
S Diagram A