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5 - City's 2001 Boulder Valley Count ProgramMEMORANDUM TO: Members of the Transportation Advisory Board Members of the Planning Board Tracy Winfree Michaet J. Gardner-Sweeney Joe Paulson Bob Major Michelle Coffelt Nataly Handlos Micki Kaplan Marni Ratzel Andrea Robbins Randall Rutsch Bob Whitson Noreen Walsh Joan Salas Steve Durian Commander Tom Wickman, Boulder PD - Traf~c Bill Fox, Fox Higgins Transportation Group t Steve Tuttle, Transplan Associates Inc. t Jim Charlier, Charlier Associates Inc. t Larry Haas, Colorado Department of Transportation t Mike Thomas, Boulder County Transportation t FROM: Bill Cowern, Transportation Operations Engineer DATE: June 18, 2002 SUBJECT: F 1 1- City's 2001 Boulder Valley Count Program Attached you will find a compilation of the city's "2001 Boulder Valley Count Program". The City counts Iraffic annually at 18 street locations on the edge of the "Boulder Valley Comprehensive Planning Area" capturing all automobile trips into and out of the Boulder Valley area. Most of these locations have been counted each year, since 1993. SCaff has performed statistica] analyses of this data [o determine if significant trends could be identified. The results of these analyses are listed below: A linear regression analysis of the total traffic (see attached tabla and graph) for the past nine years (1993 to 2001), indicates that traffic into and out of the Boulder Valley is growing at approximataly 2.9 percent per year. This represents an increase in the growth rate determined last year (2.8 percent per year). Projected out, this would imply an increase of approximately 47 percent more traffic entering/leaving Boulder by Year 2020. The "curve-fit" criteria indicates correlation in the data of plus/minus 3.0 percent, so the projection is reliable. The following summaries include all 18 count stations in the program; • The 18 count stations (2001) are ranked by total volume. Station 1. U.S. 36 south of Foothills Parkway 2. Diagonal Highway east of 71st Street 3. South Boulder Road east of Paragon Drive 4. Broadway south of City Limits 5. Arapahoe Avenue east of 75th Street 6. U.S. 36 north of Broadway 7. State Highway 52 east of 71st Street 8. Lookout Road east of 75th Street 9. Boulder Canyon west of Arapahoe Avenue ] 0. Baseline Road east of 76th Street 11. Valmont east of 75th Street 12, 63rd Street north of Monarch Road 13. Lee Hill Road west of 4th Street 14. Mapleton Avenue east of Green Rock Drive I5. Cherryvale Road south of South Boulder Road ]6. Linden Avenue west of Spring Hill Road 17. Baseline Road west of Gregory Canyon 18. 5] s` Street north of Boulder Reservoir Volume (vod)* 81,070 43,320 25,1 ]0 20,030 ] 7,460 12,720 12,620 10,040 9,950 8,530 6,730 5,920 4,900 3,200 3,020 3,000 2,170 2,030 This report looks at trafFc in and out of the City of Boulder, in six distinct sections. These sections are based on regional community connections. The six sections are summarized as follows: 1) North-West Section - Connecting Boulder and Lyons, this section includes only US-36 noRh of Broadway. 2) North-East Section - Connecting Boulder with Longmont, Niwot, and Weld County communities, this section indudes the Diagonal Highway, State Highway 52, Lookout Road, 63rd Street and Sls` Street. 3) East Section - Connecting Boulder with Erie, Lafayette and nodh Louisville, this section indudes Valmont Road, Arapahoe Road, Baseline Road and South Boulder Road (all east of Bouldcr). 4) South-East Section - Connecting Boulder with south Louisville, Broomfield and Denver-Metro communities, this section includes only U.S. 36 south of Foothills Parkway. 5) South Section - Connecting Boulder with Golden, Marshall, Eldorado Springs, and Jefferson County communities, this section includes Cherryvale Road and Broadway south of City Limits. 6) West Section - Connecting Boulder with the Foothills communities, this section includes Canyon Boulevard, Lee HiU Road, Lindan Avenue, Mapleton Avenue and Baseline Road east of Gregory Canyon. These regional directional summations are shown in Table 1 and in the attached Diagram A. Diagram A provides a comparison of current traffic volumes (2001) to those used in the modeling efforts of our Transportation Master Plan update (1996). Significant changes in traffic volume can be observed. Diagram A also provides a summary of forecasted 2020 traffic volumes, based upon the linear regression analyses for each individual count location. The following significant trends have been identified; TABLH 1 Cit Section 2001 TraFfic Volume Percent of To[al Volume (2001) 2000 Traff'ic Volume Percent Yearly Growth North-West 12,720 v d 4.6 ercent 12,470 v d +2.0 ercent North-East 73,930 v d 27.2 ercent 72,420 v d +2.1 ercent East 57,830 v d 213 ercent 62,240 v d -7,1 ercent South-East 81,070 v d 29.8 ercent 73,730 v d +] 0.0 ercent South 23,050 v d 8.5 ercent 21,330 v d +8.0 ercent West 23,200 v d 8.6 ercent 23,610 v d -1.7 ercent TOTAL 271,800 vpd 100 percent 265,800 vpd +23 percent In general, traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder from the north-east, east, and south-east significantly dominates the total amount of traffic entering the City. More than seventy eight percent of all traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder comes from the roadways between Boulder and communities to the north-east, east and south-east. The highest amount (30 percent) travels along US- 36 between Boulder and communities like north Louisville, Denver and Broomfield. The next highest amount (27 percent) comes out of the north-east, and involves traffic traveling between Boulder and communities like Longmont, Erie and Niwot. Only slightly less traffic (21 percent) is found traveling between Boulder and communities to the east like Lafayette, south Louisville and Erie. Traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder from the noRh-east, south-east and east have increased significantly since the 1996 (TMP update). During this time period, traffic has increased from 59,000 vpd to 74,000 vpd (25 percent or 5.0 percent per year) on roadways connecting to communities in the north-east. Traffic has increased from 73,000 vpd to 51,000 vpd (]0 percent or 2.0 percent per year) on US-36 near the south-east city limi[s of Boulder. Traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder from the east has increased from 48,000 vpd to 58,000 vpd (21 percent or 4.0 percent per year). These increases are in excess of those anticipated by the TMP update and may be attributable to faster job and populatioo growth in this area. • Traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder from the north-west, south, and west (foothills communities) have stayed fairly constant since 1994. Total traffic entering/exiting the City of Boulder from all of these areas has increased from 54,000 vpd to 59,000 (8.5 percent or 1.7 percent per year )during this time period. • The 18 count stations below are ranked by daily volume increase per year using the linear regression. The regression data represents the time period of our count program (1993 to 2000). A negative slopa suggests that traffic is decreasing by that volume per year: Station 1. US-36 south of Foothills Parkway 2. Diagonal Highway north of Monazch Road 3. South Boulder Road east of Paragon Drive 4. Baseline east of 76th Street 5. State Highway 52 east of 71 st Street 6. Broadway south of City Limits 7. Lookout Road east of 75th Street S. Arapahoe east of 75th Street 9. Valmont east of 75th Street 10. U.S. 36 north of Broadway 11. Boulder Canyon west of Arapahce Road 12. Cherryvale Road south of South Boulder Road 13. Mapleton Avenue east of Green Rock Drive 14. Linden Avenue west of Spring Hili Road ] 5. Lee Hill Road west of 4th Street 16. 63rd Street north of Monarch Road 17. Baseline Road west of Gregory Canyon 18. 51" Street north of Boulder Resarvoir Increase (vpd/vr) 2,023 1,436 927 454 438 403 342 303 247 233 165 142 54 37 -18 -18 -29 Limited Data Sample Arterial Count Program Comparison The City also performs an "Arterial Count Program" on a yearly basis. This program counts traffic at 17 different locations throughout the arterial network. The results of the this program are documented separately but in summary, the 2001 program results showed that the traffic intemal to the City of Boulder has increased by approximately 1.8 percent per year. Growth in internal city traf~c is ]ess than growth ot traffic entering/exiting the City. If you have any comments or suggestions, concerning the count programs, please feel free to contact me at 3o3-4at-3266 or e-mail me ac CowernBC~?ci.boulder.co.us. t - with attachments * - vpd = vehicles per day 63RD N!A NIA 55Tt~ S~r' H10HWA~36y-NDRTH ~ 11508 12717 16418 4839 4885 ~E~ Hi~~ Ro 4447 ~ ~ ~ 3201 ~~NO~N ,4 E 0 3750 ~ 2899 3196 MAP 70N AVE 4163 876 BOULDER ~'.+AN 11128 = l~ ~. _ _ , - - ~ ~ BO DER TURNPI /~ C. BROADWAY~ S N ~- ~ W -µ ~~~ ~ E ~ ~; HIOIiWAY IGMWAY 52 ~ LoOKGUT R VALMONT ~R ARAPAHOE Ro - 1 348 77464 27119 BA9ELINE ~ 6491 17568 GHERRYVALE rao 23783 2 9 2 110 ~~ 36811 5694 i,•// ~ s Diagram A